Articles

CCAPS articles image
Articles: Research by the CCAPS program is often published in external publications including journals, working papers, and reports by the policy and academic community. CCAPS research has been published in Climate Dynamics, International Security, and the Journal of Peace Research, among others.
Global Food Prices, Regime Type, and Urban Unrest in the Developing World
Date:
27 February 2015

Cullen Hendrix, a lead researcher on the CCAPS program, and Stephan Haggard recently published an article on global food prices and urban unrest in the Journal of Peace Research. Their research, which focuses on Africa and Asia and uses data from 1961 to 2010, is also highlighted in NewSecurityBeat, a blog by the Wilson Center's Environmental Change and Security Program.

Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Mapping 3.0
Date:
25 November 2014

In this article, published in Politcal Geography, CCAPS researchers Josh Busby, Todd G. Smith and Nisha Krishnan detail the methodological refinements made to an existing model of climate security, vulnerability, rationale for the approach, and the findings. 

 

Climate Security Vulnerability in Africa Mapping 3.0: An Update
File Size:
Date:
13 February 2015

This paper by CCAPS researchers expands on the data, methodology, and results presented at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco (April 2013) and recently published in their paper “Climate security vulnerability in Africa mapping 3.0”, in Political Geography (Issue 43: 2014).

Feeding Unrest
Date:
21 October 2014

In this article, CCAPS researcher Todd G. Smith explores the issue of whether rising domestic consumer food prices are a contributing cause of sociopolitical unrest, more broadly defined, in urban areas of Africa.

Hot Spots of Security Vulnerability Associated with Climate Change in Africa
Date:
18 June 2014
CCAPS researchers Joshua Busby, Kerry Cook, Edward Vizy, Todd Smith and Mesfin Bekalo recently published an article examining areas in Africa where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. 

Extreme Temperatures and Violence
Date:
29 January 2014

In a recent article featured in Nature Climate Change, CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh examines the theory that extreme weather events are the drivers of insecurity and conflict. She argues that suggesting that climate change is the dominant influence on violence can lead to environmental determinism, effectively overlooking the true causes of conflict.

Alan Kuperman on Constitutional Design and Conflict Management in Africa
Date:
29 October 2013
In an article published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, Alan Kuperman explores whether constitutional reform could reduce political instability and violence in Africa. The project recommends promoting gradual reform of Africa's centralized constitutional designs by counter-balancing them with liberal institutions.
Local Level Climate Justice? Adaptation Finance and Vulnerability Reduction
Date:
06 September 2013
In this article, Sam Barrett of Trinity College Dublin investigates the ground-level effectiveness of adaptation finance in climate vulnerable villages across Malawi. The study uses participatory assessments to compare actions of villages receiving adaptation finance with those engaging in autonomous and informal adaptations.

Projected Changes in East African Rainy Seasons
Date:
31 July 2013
In their article in the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Kerry Cook and Edwardy Vizy use a regional climate model with 90-km horizontal resolution to predict and analyze precipitation changes over East Africa due to greenhouse gas increases.
Governance and Conflict in the Sahel's Ungoverned Space
Date:
11 July 2013
In their article in Stability: International Journal of Security & Development, Clionadh Raleigh and Caitriona Dowd examine governance and violence rates in the 'ungoverned' spaces of the African Sahel. The authors review theories of spatial governance, the geopolitics of the Sahel, and the violent actors operating in the Sahel.
Climate Change and Insecurity: Mapping Vulnerability in Africa
Date:
26 April 2013
The Spring 2013 issue of International Security features an article by CCAPS researchers on mapping climate security vulnerability in Africa. The authors find that the places in Africa most vulnerable to the security consequences of climate change are parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and South Sudan.
Climate Security and East Africa: A GIS-Based Analysis of Vulnerability
Date:
26 April 2013
Climate Change and Pastoralism: Traditional Coping Mechanisms and Conflict in the Horn of Africa, published by the Institute for Peace and Security Studies and the University for Peace, includes a chapter by CCAPS researchers on applying a continent-wide model of climate security vulnerability to East Africa and identifying the hot spots of concern.
Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the 21st Century
Date:
12 February 2013
In the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Ned Vizy and Kerry Cook, with Julien Cretat and Naresh Neupane, use regional climate model simulations to develop predictions for the Sahel at the mid- and late- 21st century. Based on their analysis, the Sahel is likely to experience increased surface air temperatures, summer rainfall, and surface moisture.
Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls
Date:
20 December 2012
The Air and Space Power Journal Africa and Francophonie, a quarterly publication of the U.S. Air Force, featured an article by CCAPS researchers on the future consequences of climate change. The authors put forth the CCAPS model of vulnerability as an approach to identify where, when, and how climate-related events will disrupt Africa's security.
Spatial Vulnerability of Rural Nigeria to Climate Change
Date:
31 October 2012
Ignatius Madu's article in the International Journal of Climate Change explores the spatial patterns of vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria, finding that the more vulnerable households are in northern states that are characterized by a high degree of rurality. Dr. Madu is a winner of the CCAPS Call for Papers on environmental security.
Social Conflict in Africa: A New Database
Date:
15 August 2012

In this article featured in International Interactions, CCAPS researchers Idean Salehyan, Cullen S. Hendrix, Jesse Hamner, Christina Case, Christopher Linebarger, Emily Stull, and Jennifer Williams describe the Social Conflict in Africa Database (SCAD) which contains information on over 7,200 instances of unrest in 47 African countries from 1990-2010.

Mid-21st Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern & Tropical Africa
Date:
01 May 2012

In the Journal of Climate, Edward Vizy and Kerry Cook predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041-2060. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days, number of dry days, number of extreme wet days, and extreme wet day rainfall intensity.

Impact of Climate Change on Mid-21st Century Growing Seasons in Africa
Date:
20 February 2012
Kerry Cook and Edward Vizy in their article in Climate Dynamics project changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa, using a new regional climate model. The response is highly regional, with a decrease in growing season days projected for parts of West Africa, and a longer growing season projected for the central and eastern Sahel.
An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa
Date:
31 January 2012
Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton use rainfall variability to explore the influence of the climate on conflict. Their article in the Journal of Peace Research shows that in locations that experience communal conflict events, the frequency of events increases in periods of extreme rainfall variation, irrespective of the sign of the rainfall change.
Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa
Date:
31 January 2012
In their article in the Journal of Peace Research, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence.