Climate Change and Insecurity: Mapping Vulnerability in Africa
Date:
26 April 2013
The Spring 2013 issue of International Security features an article by CCAPS researchers on mapping climate security vulnerability in Africa. The authors find that the places in Africa most vulnerable to the security consequences of climate change are parts of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Somalia, and South Sudan.
Climate Security and East Africa: A GIS-Based Analysis of Vulnerability
Date:
26 April 2013
Climate Change and Pastoralism: Traditional Coping Mechanisms and Conflict in the Horn of Africa, published by the Institute for Peace and Security Studies and the University for Peace, includes a chapter by CCAPS researchers on applying a continent-wide model of climate security vulnerability to East Africa and identifying the hot spots of concern.
Projections of a Wetter Sahel in the 21st Century
Date:
12 February 2013
In the Journal of Climate, CCAPS researchers Ned Vizy and Kerry Cook, with Julien Cretat and Naresh Neupane, use regional climate model simulations to develop predictions for the Sahel at the mid- and late- 21st century. Based on their analysis, the Sahel is likely to experience increased surface air temperatures, summer rainfall, and surface moisture.
Of Climate Change and Crystal Balls
Date:
20 December 2012
The Air and Space Power Journal – Africa and Francophonie, a quarterly publication of the U.S. Air Force, featured an article by CCAPS researchers on the future consequences of climate change. The authors put forth the CCAPS model of vulnerability as an approach to identify where, when, and how climate-related events will disrupt Africa’s security.
Spatial Vulnerability of Rural Nigeria to Climate Change
Date:
31 October 2012
Ignatius Madu's article in the International Journal of Climate Change explores the spatial patterns of vulnerability to climate change in Nigeria, finding that the more vulnerable households are in northern states that are characterized by a high degree of rurality. Dr. Madu is a winner of the CCAPS Call for Papers on environmental security.
Mid-21st Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern & Tropical Africa
Date:
01 May 2012
In the Journal of Climate, Edward Vizy and Kerry Cook predict changes in extremes across tropical and northern Africa for 2041-2060. Six indicators are examined, including annual extreme and daily diurnal temperature ranges, heat wave days, number of dry days, number of extreme wet days, and extreme wet day rainfall intensity.
Impact of Climate Change on Mid-21st Century Growing Seasons in Africa
Date:
20 February 2012
Kerry Cook and Edward Vizy in their article in Climate Dynamics project changes in growing seasons for 2041-2060 across Africa, using a new regional climate model. The response is highly regional, with a decrease in growing season days projected for parts of West Africa, and a longer growing season projected for the central and eastern Sahel.
An Analysis of Conflict and Climate Variability in East Africa
Date:
31 January 2012
Clionadh Raleigh and Dominic Kniveton use rainfall variability to explore the influence of the climate on conflict. Their article in the Journal of Peace Research shows that in locations that experience communal conflict events, the frequency of events increases in periods of extreme rainfall variation, irrespective of the sign of the rainfall change.
Climate Change, Rainfall, and Social Conflict in Africa
Date:
31 January 2012
In their article in the Journal of Peace Research, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine whether deviations from normal rainfall patterns affect the propensity for individuals and groups to engage in disruptive activities such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, communal conflict, and anti-government violence.
The Search for Safety
Date:
19 October 2011
CCAPS researcher Clionadh Raleigh's article in Global Environmental Change discusses how conflict patterns affect the volume, direction, and types of migration within the developing world.
Mapping Climate Change And Security In North Africa
Date:
17 November 2010
In this German Marshall Fund report, Joshua Busby, Kaiba White, and Todd Smith examine how climate change and physical sources of vulnerability to natural hazards might intersect with North Africa’s various demographic, social, and political challenges.
Introducing ACLED: An Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset
Date:
01 September 2010
This article in the Journal of Peace Research presents ACLED, an Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset. ACLED codes the actions of rebels, governments, and militias within unstable states, specifying the exact location and date of battle events, transfers of military control, headquarter establishment, civilian violence, and rioting.
After Copenhagen Climate Governance and the Road Ahead
Date:
02 August 2010
Joshua Busby discusses the outcomes of the Copenhagen conference and provides a roadmap for global climate change institutions to address perhaps the most difficult collective action problem the world has faced in this working paper by the International Institutions and Global Governance Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Science and the International Politics of Climate Change
Date:
01 June 2010
In their article in the Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations, Cullen Hendrix and Idean Salehyan examine several reasons for the failure to reach an international treaty on climate change. They propose several policies and mechanisms through which countries can reach a meaningful agreement to limit carbon emissions.
Political Marginalization, Climate Change, and Conflict in African Sahel States
Date:
09 March 2010
This article in the International Studies Review by Clionadh Raleigh discusses the probability of increased communal conflict in African states due to the ‘‘political vulnerability’’ of groups to climate change.
Copenhagen’s Climate Finance Promise: Six Key Questions
Date:
01 February 2010
CCAPS researcher J. Timmons Roberts, Martin Stadelmann, and Saleemul Huq take a closer look at the Copenhagen promise and discuss six big questions about climate finance in their briefing by the International Institute for Environment and Development.
Feeding Insecurity? Poverty, Weak States, and Climate Change
Date:
01 January 2010
Joshua Busby examines the relationship between environmental quality, poverty, and security in his chapter in Confronting Poverty. The chapter explores what may be gained from efforts to “securitize” climate change, the evidence underpinning this, and varied arguments on the links between climate change and conflict.
Billions at Stake in Climate Finance: Four Key Lessons
Date:
01 November 2009
Peter Newell, CCAPS research J. Timmons Roberts, Emily Boyd, and Saleemul Huq identify four key lessons that donor countries need to learn in their briefing by the International Institute for Environment and Development.
